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Wednesday, October 8. 2008What to Conclude from the Townhall Debate?Posted by Joerg Wolf in German Politics, Transatlantic Relations, US Domestic and Cultural Issues on Wednesday, October 8. 2008 I think it is great that the US presidential candidates have several televised debates. And I appreciate it, that this US tradition and democratic principle has arrived in Germany in 2002, although here we only have one debate per election. (Please correct me if I am wrong.) I have read a couple of articles about yesterday's Townhall debate, but apparently it was not too exciting. James Joyner was "bored to tears" about an hour into the debate. His conclusion in Outside the Beltway:
What do you think of the presidential elections? Did Obama and McCain give any clues about policy issues that are important for Europe? Many American friends (incl. our co-blogger Kyle) are enormously interested in this election; even on the border of obsession. Of course, I understand why this election is so special, but I do not share this huge interest and excitement. I am probably even less excited than my fellow Germans. While there are significant policy, style, judgement, and character differences between Obama and McCain, I am not sure these differences will matter as much as most people think they will. The next president will be less powerful and will have less room for maneuver than past presidents due to the financial crisis and the Iraq war. Trackbacks
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David
- #1 - 2008-10-08 10:55 - (Reply)
Barack Obama handily won the debate and will continue to gain support across the US for his vision of change. We are now seeing the makings of an electoral blowout in favor of Barack Obama.Something is stirring across America - it is the longing to turn the page on the Bush years and for the nation to move in a fresh direction. Comments ()
Don S
- #1.1 - 2008-10-08 20:13 - (Reply)
I never thought I'd write this to you, David - but I think you are seeing this far too narrowly! Comments ()
David
- #1.1.1 - 2008-10-08 21:45 - (Reply)
Don, it's funny how history seems to repeat itself. Two weeks ago, the events of 1932 seemed like the distant past. Since then, I've seen my retirement savings (and my wife's) diminish by a huge percentage. And this is happening to nearly every family in America. Fear has taken hold as no one knows where the bottom is. The job losses are just beginning to be felt. I never dreamed that we'd find ourselves in 2008 on the brink of a real economic depression. Comments ()
Don S
- #1.1.1.1 - 2008-10-08 23:12 - (Reply)
Maybe. It's not clear that what we are about to enter is going to be like the Great depression. I think (I hope) the Great Depression was uniquely bad. Comments ()
Marie Claude
- #2 - 2008-10-08 12:01 - (Reply)
I had the impression that Obama has the energy to embrass the whole America's fate, also that he was not repeating a well known lesson, but was thinking while talking, didnt get a positive impression of McCain, he seems worn out within his discourses, that we can read on diverse republican american thinktanks for ages, kind of last dance ! Comments ()
Joe Noory
- #2.1 - 2008-10-08 23:00 - (Reply)
You were [url=http://www.programme.tv/debat-obama-mccain-1435769.php]up at 3 in the morning[/url] to watch it? Comments ()
Zyme
- #3 - 2008-10-08 12:38 - (Reply)
Now while these debates are a good chance for unpolitical bystanders to pick their vote, I would really like to know what these debates are except one pompous tv show devoted to the god of populism? Comments ()
Don S
- #3.1 - 2008-10-09 21:17 - (Reply)
Zyme, I think your information comes from the political junkie clss. Most people in the US don't really start to pay attention to the candidates until October. Comments ()
Zyme
- #3.1.1 - 2008-10-09 22:24 - (Reply)
Interesting. Well this seems to explain this phenomenon rather well. People without ordinary interest can have a full dose of it at a relatively small cost of time. Comments ()
quo vadis
- #3.1.2 - 2008-10-10 01:26 - (Reply)
Debates (and 'town hall' type forums) are also an opportunity to see the candidates in action when their not reading off a teleprompter. Comments ()
c.sydow
- #4 - 2008-10-08 13:40 - (Reply)
Concerning Germany we had two televised debates between schröder and stoiber back in 2002 while there was only one debate between schröder and merkel before the last elections 2005. Comments ()
Fuchur
- #5 - 2008-10-08 13:52 - (Reply)
Let's face it: This election is over. Of course, people will see the outcome of the debate slightly skewed according to their political preferences - but in the end, it was clear that McCain did not get the clear victory he needed. What's more, the polls indicate a clear victory for Obama. Comments ()
David
- #5.1 - 2008-10-08 14:14 - (Reply)
I'd like to see a debate between Lafontaine and Westermann. NOw that could get pretty lively! Comments ()
Fuchur
- #5.1.1 - 2008-10-08 14:29 - (Reply)
Wester[i]welle[/i] :-). Yes, I was kinda thinking along that line, too. Cause that's where the real frictions are. The fundamental disagreements are not between CDU/CSU and the SPD - after all, these two have been in a coalition government these past years. Comments ()
Zyme
- #5.1.1.1 - 2008-10-08 15:57 - (Reply)
Only at the first glance. Westerwelle and Lafontaine would never agree to that one. All Westerwelle does is calling for snap elections because of an "incompetent government" Lafontaine isn't part of. And Lafontaine prefers spreading his dubious promises he knows he can present towards simple minded followers but not towards a politician with economical knowledge. Comments ()
David
- #5.1.1.1.1 - 2008-10-08 18:01 - (Reply)
Yes, Lafontaine was attacked as unserious for criticizing the deregulation of the financial markets ...10 years ago. Comments ()
Zyme
- #5.1.1.1.1.1 - 2008-10-08 18:19 - (Reply)
My goodness, what Lafontaine essentially is promising is more money for everyone except the rich ones and the big companies. He wants higher pensions. More money for children. More governmental payment for health care. Basically all the reforms that kept our economy in track he wants to be undone. If the people would like the idea, he would demand the sun to shine at night, too! Comments ()
Fuchur
- #5.1.1.1.1.2 - 2008-10-08 21:27 - (Reply)
I hate to agree with Zyme, but don't get me started on Lafontaine. First of all, this ridiculous idiot is in no position to lecture anybody. He was a governor, high ranking member of his party, party leader, finance minister - I don't give a damn what he may or may not have [b]proposed[/b] 10 years ago. I care about what he [b]accomplished[/b] 10 years ago, when he was in power. I remember him standing there all fat and gloating and mocking his political opponents in pathetic manner after the big election victory over Helmut Kohl. Well, he was always a big talker. When it was time to implement his beautiful promises, and reality proved to be tougher than his little dreamworld, he ran off like a crybaby. Comments ()
David
- #5.1.1.1.1.2.1 - 2008-10-08 22:25 - (Reply)
On the other hand, what has Westerwelle proposed for solving this global financial crisis? More tax cuts? Seems like the fetish of free markets absolutism has now been discredited for good. We need new ideas, and neither Lafontaine nor Westerwelle seem to have any.... Comments ()
Fuchur
- #5.1.1.1.1.2.1.1 - 2008-10-09 15:19 - (Reply)
What do you mean, "more tax cuts"? We just had one of the biggest tax increases in the history of Germany. Comments ()
Joe Noory
- #5.1.1.1.1.3 - 2008-10-08 22:53 - (Reply)
Look who's stupid now? The people who regulated very badly, those European banks. Not only are they on average [url=http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/1669]leveraged nearly twice as much[/url] as American banks, but are in a [url=http://ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=308271768901116]taught straightjacket of regulation[/url]. Comments ()
Don S
- #5.1.1.1.1.3.1 - 2008-10-08 23:30 - (Reply)
Joe, you seem to take some satisfaction from this; I find it scarier than hell. Perhaps because I live in the UK. But at least I don't bank with Barclay's - I'm with RBS which seems as well-capitalised as any of them, although that's not saying much. Comments ()
Joe Noory
- #5.1.1.1.1.3.1.1 - 2008-10-09 19:54 - (Reply)
I don't take any satisfaction in what happened, but the past can't be changed. Comments ()
Don S
- #5.1.1.1.1.3.1.1.1 - 2008-10-09 20:03 - (Reply)
Oh, I know that Joe. One thing which stands out from the 30's is that people with skills other than those useful on Wall Street and other such hornswoggles did OK, because they have choices and can apply their skills in multiple ways. Also there was a lot of nice real estate going for fire sale prices all of a sudden, and a man with a decent income could often afford the rent on something previously far beyond his means. Comments ()
Marie Claude
- #5.1.1.1.1.3.1.1.2 - 2008-10-09 21:54 - (Reply)
http://www.washtimes.com/news/2008/oct/08/government-reshaping-financial-landscape/ Comments ()
David
- #5.1.1.1.1.3.2 - 2008-10-09 02:13 - (Reply)
What a joke. The predatory lending practices of CountryWide had nothing to do with "social engineering" and everything to do with greed. The issuance of $69 trillion in Credit Default Swaps - backstopped by AIG - had nothing to do with "social engineering" and everything to do with greed. Comments ()
Joe Noory
- #5.1.1.1.1.3.2.1 - 2008-10-09 02:43 - (Reply)
The overwhelming bulk of the HIDEOUSLY STUPID lending was legal, and enabled by Fannie & Freddie for the simple purpose of getting people into homes at all costs. It was social engineering and intervention at it's core and in its' intent. Comments ()
David
- #5.1.1.1.1.3.2.1.1 - 2008-10-09 22:38 - (Reply)
I'm not so sure the lending was legal,and neither is the FBI: they are investigating a number of banks. Comments ()
Joe Noory
- #5.1.1.1.1.3.2.1.1.1 - 2008-10-10 13:18 - (Reply)
I would imagine that the Commodity Futures Act would have to do with commodity futures, not Credit Default Swaps and mortgage lending practices. Either way, people will trot out a stale and implausible class-struggle argument, demanding conditions that will scuttle conditions needed for recovery. Comments ()
David
- #5.1.1.1.1.3.2.1.1.1.1 - 2008-10-10 14:16 - (Reply)
"I would imagine that the Commodity Futures Act would have to do with commodity futures, not Credit Default Swaps " Comments ()
Joe Noory
- #5.1.1.1.1.3.2.1.1.1.1.1 - 2008-10-11 12:29 - (Reply)
I just read part of it over, skimming, and doing word searches. The act would have limited single-stock futures, and it's only effect on Credit default swaps would be to regulate their trading and ban the private clearinghouse in which they could be traded as a market, as opposed to each holder seeking out each potential buyer individually. It may have banned their regulation, but the existence of CDSs didn't bring the credit market down - they were a hedge against them and would be a symptom of a credit failure, and are worthless to an investor because they're being called in by their offerors. The clearinghouse for these things is at the end of October, by the way. Comments ()
David
- #5.1.1.1.1.3.2.1.1.1.1.1.1 - 2008-10-11 13:17 - (Reply)
I think you've become unhinged by the collapse of your worldview. Comments ()
Joe Noory
- #5.1.1.1.1.3.2.1.1.1.1.1.1.1 - 2008-10-11 13:46 - (Reply)
Yes, they will decide on November 4th - but I'm "unhinged"? I'm not the one who will evasively promote the idea that events in 1995 and 2000 are caused by someone elected in 2001. Comments ()
Don S
- #5.1.1.1.1.3.2.1.1.1.1.1.1.2 - 2008-10-12 05:34 - (Reply)
Dave, I think you're making a small asumption here, that Obama is going to win by a landslide. I doubt he will, somewhere between 52-48 and 56-44 is my best guess at this point. I think there is way too much distruct of him out in the country for the enough people to cross over to make it 60-40. Comments ()
Don S
- #5.1.1.1.1.3.2.1.1.1.1.2 - 2008-10-11 17:38 - (Reply)
David, Comments ()
Pat Patterson
- #5.1.1.1.1.3.2.1.1.1.1.2.1 - 2008-10-11 19:57 - (Reply)
The current drop in the stock market is not even as bad as it was when the dot.com bubble went bust. Over the space of two weeks, between 3/10/2000 and 3/24/2000, the DJIA lost 70% of its value plus all of those really cool ads for the 2001 Super Bowl. Comments ()
Joe Noory
- #5.1.1.1.1.4 - 2008-10-09 19:56 - (Reply)
"Luxus fuer alle"? You call that a plausible policy position? Comments ()
John in Michigan, USA
- #5.1.1.1.1.5 - 2008-10-10 21:17 - (Reply)
"Lafontaine was attacked as unserious for criticizing the deregulation of the financial markets" Comments ()
Joe Noory
- #6 - 2008-10-08 15:44 - (Reply)
[i]I understand why this election is so special, but I do not share this huge interest and excitement.[/i] Comments ()
Don S
- #7 - 2008-10-08 19:13 - (Reply)
Joerg, I find myelf both agreeing and disagreeing with what you wrote. At the base you seem to be saying "it's booooorrrriiing" (though you are MUCH too polite to actully use that word). ;) Comments ()
Javaneh
- #8 - 2008-10-09 18:41 - (Reply)
Interesting blog post. As a blogger, we thought you’d be interested in VoterWatch’s Presidential Debates Project. We have brought together presidential candidates, political figures and others to comment on the presidential debates. Dick Morris, Sophia Nelson, Public Agenda, and others are using our video player to provide their commentary. Be sure to check it out at www.bloggingthedebates.com Comments ()
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