So Turkey has bilateral trade agreements but still does not have the trade agreements that it wanted with the EU. I'm not sure if that was really much of a counterpoint. As to controlling the access routes to the Black Sea it is important to remember that during the Georgian War the Russian fleet, basically one missile cruiser had to retreat as the Americans were allowed by the Turks to send three Burke class missile destroyers into the Black Sea and unlimited air flights. The Turks would not allow any of the Russian fleet from Odessa through the Dardanelles.

Most of the world's freight is still delivered by sea and only a few of the Russian controlled pipelines are completely in Russia and many of those deliver oil not from Russia but from other countries. So it might be too soon to dismiss geography as an important part of the elephants' dance floor.

But I am curious as to what you meant by, I think, a combined Kyrgyz and Russian military formation of 1,000 men. The lates figure I came up with I can't find any reference to that anywhere unless you are referring to a small unit, around 100 members of the 5th Air Army assigned to Kant to create an electronic listening post.

Krygyzstan did indeed vote to cancel the US contract, as it has twice before since 1998, but then found it had cancelled the leases of all the foreign bases in the country and now is trying to figure out what to do. But like the US withdrawal from Subic Bay, France and Kam Rahm Bay they managed to find other strategic locations to park its equipment and the servicemen that control that equipment.

I think you were referring to a stand alone RRF that some of the 'Stans and Russia agreed to create earlier this month. This appears at first glance something different to the EU's idea but its main OOB is terrorism, counterinsurgency and natural disasters. But since the Kyrgyz military only numbers 12,500 with now reliable air assets its contribution will probably be limited unless the Russians are planning on providing transport and CAPs.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/europe/02/04/russia.collective.military/

Interesting because once one looks at a map its plain that this "task force" made up either from a new force under the command of the 331st Guards Regiment or from the disgraced 106th Guards Airborne Division has nothing to do with a regional Warsaw Pact treaty organization. But rather internal security in areas the Russians consider theirs but also are deathly afraid the Muslim majorities may constitute a threat to the other peripheral areas still under nominal Russian control simply because as of yet no one else, except the Chinese or Indians, has any interest.

And according to current Russian military doctrine these are not really airborne units anymore but rather like the light infantry of the 10th Mountain Division of the US. Capable of going anywhere in the world within 72 hours but will need resupply and reinforcements within a week. A Chinese, Indian or Turkish armored formation would make short work of such a unit within days. Plus nothing has been signed yet as the amount of money the Russians promised initially seems to have vanished into the Russian pension and banking systems to keep them afloat.

Most of what you say is very reasonable until we get to the EU signing bilateral treaties with Turkey for access to the Black Sea. The Dardanelles are already international waters and the Turks have shut it to any freight traffic they desire. The EU recgonized this as de facto and asks pretty please everytime they want access. In fact the only two powers that have never acknowledged this state of affairs is the US which the Turks have never challenged and the Russians which the Turks have basically said never. That alone would make access via a regional agreement more than important to the EU but would be restoring maritime law.

US policy at least since WWII has been to strengthen the European alliances, to prevent another war, successful, and to allow the US to shift some of the burden for defending Europe back to the Europeans, unseccessful! AS along as the EU, if such a accession ever took place, didn't make a hash of Turkey integrating like they did for the DDR then I still don't really see the hesitation other than fear of an even larger Turkish diaspora.