Wednesday, August 25. 2010
U.S. Generals Indicate No Quick Withdrawal from Afghanistan
Posted by Kyle Atwell in Transatlantic Relations on Wednesday, August 25. 2010
Consider comments from the top U.S. Marine in Afghanistan, General James Conway, reported by Daily Times:
In recent months, US officials have played down expectations of any large withdrawal of troops in July 2011. Conway echoed those sentiments, saying he believed Marines would remain in the south for years. He said that Afghan forces would not be ready to take over security from US troops in key southern provinces for at least a few years.Further statements by General David Petraeus regarding the Afghanistan drawdown make it clear that the July 2011 date does not signal a hard end of the war, writes GlobalSecurity.org:
“I honestly think it will be a few years before conditions on the ground are such that turnover will be possible for us,” he said, referring to Marines deployed in the provinces of Helmand and Kandahar. Conway said some Afghan units somewhere might be able to assume the lead for security in 2011 but not in the south.
Petraeus also repeated his view that the drawdown in U.S. and NATO forces, scheduled to begin in July 2011, will not result in a swift withdrawal.General Petraeus discusses the July 2011 drawdown in a video interview with the BBC, found here.
"July 2011...is the date when a process begins. It is not the date when the U.S. forces begin an exodus and look for the exit and a light to turn out," Petraeus said.
In the article "Why Europe Fears Petraeus's Urge to Surge", Financial Times argues that European leaders not only desire a more expedient withdrawal from Afghanistan, but also want to pursue a different strategy for ending the conflict based on negotiations with the Taliban:
In discussions with European generals, diplomats and officials – each involved in their government’s Afghan policy – a common fear emerges. That US president Barack Obama will not be able to refuse demands from Gen Petraeus to extend the surge well beyond July 2011; that the general will continue to push for a continuation of military strategy; and that he will decline any suggestion of opening negotiations with the Taliban – something that many Europeans are very keen on.
...
European officials are coming to the consensus that they would like the Nato summit and Mr Obama’s Afghan policy review – both at the end of the year – to reach a position where negotiating with the Taliban is the political strategy around which military strategy is determined.
Troop withdrawals, which Mr Obama says will start next July, would then take place according to the pace of talks between the US, the Taliban and the Afghan government; not on the basis of hard-to-gauge battlefield success. Europe also wants the US to press Afghanistan’s neighbours not to interfere in its affairs.
Gen Petraeus wants to convince Washington, Nato and Europe to do just the opposite, determining withdrawals on the basis of the military, not the political, situation.
Wow. How to miss a story.
The entire military command structure is directly contradicting their commander-in-chief.
THAT'S the story.
And, with apologies to Pamela who I often agree with, they should have kept their mouths shut and got on about their jobs. With such a weak president the JCS is running the war but contradicting the president is simply a bad idea regardless of who that president happens to be.
Oh, I agree they SHOULD - but that they don't is, I think, a measure of their contempt. Fortunately for them, they aren't saying it to Rolling Stone mag.
Bad precedent to set for future admirals and generals. But agreed in that it shows the weakness of the Administration and the thinly veiled contempt they have for the President and the West Wing. Even Clinton, after some initial gaffes, figured out that the JCS was actually on his side and not an enemy.
Weren't these would be negotiating partners of the Taliban the ones who begged the US; "please don't go it alone" ?
Just the suggestion in public is going to cause Afghans who oppose the Taliban to turn on us for the sake of self-protection.
What a fantastic way for nations with troops in the field to end a war - by undermining the Afghans!
Expect something like the wave of boat people.
Joe and Pat, you'll love this. P.J. O'Rourke went to Afghanistan.
"The 72 Hour Expert"
But the Taliban isn’t winning much love either—otherwise we and our NATO allies would have already gone the way of the Soviets. The civil society activist had a very Afghan insult for the Taliban: “The Taliban has the power to kill and people still don’t like them.”
CLASSIC P.J.
http://www.theweeklystandard.com/articles/72-hour-expert
----------
And as for 'something like the wave of boat people' - we've seen it before when the Soviets invaded. The Washington D.C. area was suddenly swamped with Afghanis. They opened restaurants. Someone should do a study of global conflict based on the cuisine of the restaurants that open in the D.C area.
but Joe will rescue the boat people, he's got such a big heart for the sans papiers
tiens, I was expecting you on that one, but
http://euobserver.com/9/30657 Italy to raise EU citizen expulsion policy at September meeting -the "invaded" countries are rebelling cuz of the mess that the Schengen agreements generated
http://www.dw-world.de/dw/article/0,,5944924,00.html EU reviewing France's Roma expulsion as Paris digs its heels in -de quoi se mêle t'on in Eurocratie? money debt is national, but regalian rights are Brussels burocrats's !
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,713796,00.html 'Injurious, Defamatory and Polemical': New Book Plunges Germany into Immigration Debate... - ça commence à chauffer sur le sujet là aussi !
That doesn't make much sense to equate what Italy wants to talk about with what France actually did?
hmmm professor Zebulon has difficulty to connect the neurones now ?
actuallly, Italy has this "worry" for quite a while too, and couldn't get the fact discussed in Brussels, now, that France, as the 2nd biggest EU member, undertook the "expels", the Brussels burocrats will have to reflect of the problem and think about a common policy for helping Romania to deal with its minority
Troops Wonder: WTF Are We Doing In Afghanistan, Again? http://bit.ly/dj6hE4
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/26/world/asia/26kabul.html?_r=3
that's the "complete flou"
er hmmm, Sarko reaffirmed that french troops will stay in Afghanistans as long as the American would need them !
uh, they would be more useful in Magreb fighting AQ
It's interesting that you completely misread the article. Why would the US need to fight in the Maghreb, or is nothing your countrymen ever want the responsibility of your countrymen?
The other part of your throw-away response imagining what I'm supposed to personally do about boat people is rather amusing too. It tells me that you don't reason.
All you ever want is some way to open your mouth in such a way that makes you feel like you possess all the wisdom in the universe. It's a lot like you thinking that you understood the entire state of the financial structure by linking, over and over, a psychotic diatribe written in the 1970s by someone who was merely trying to prove that a cabal of Jews ran the universe.
ah joe superman is showing off
"It's interesting that you completely misread the article. Why would the US need to fight in the Maghreb, or is nothing your countrymen ever want the responsibility of your countrymen?"
it is interesting that you completly miread my comment: did I say that the US need to fight in the Maghreb ? but sure some french troops did a few weeks ago, and that they did it by requests from Mali and Mauritania, though that their importance isn't significant enough...
as usual, you can't see the positive aspect of our deployment, but you're biased, every sane person knows that!
"The other part of your throw-away response imagining what I'm supposed to personally do about boat people is rather amusing too. It tells me that you don't reason."
no, I was jocking at you, isn't it enough fer ya ?
"All you ever want is some way to open your mouth in such a way that makes you feel like you possess all the wisdom in the universe. It's a lot like you thinking that you understood the entire state of the financial structure by linking, over and over, a psychotic diatribe written in the 1970s by someone who was merely trying to prove that a cabal of Jews ran the universe."
n'importe quoi as usual, update your readings, but you can't, I know that
MC did miss the point of the first article in that she is trying to imply deteatism yet "... What they wanted to hear was a sure path — any path — to winning it." That hardly qualifies as the angst and ennui the Europeans seem to approach everything important.
So send them there, it's not like you need our permission. Or maybe, on some level, you do?
deteatism ?
hmm, since I watched the american military blogs, I didn't see any advocating to stay in Afghanistan, they almost think that's a waste of money and of human lifes
sure I'm not relying on Joe's to get my infos !
What american military blogs would those be?
sont-ils curieux ;-)
hmmm some know Belmont Club,
PatDollard
Breitbart
War is boring
Dangerrooom...
different forums according to the events, such planes crash, deads in Afhanistan...
uh
Belmont Club? When did Wretch ever say that?
Wretch is the only duck that writes on BC
Crimeny. THIS is a military blog
Long War Journal
http://www.longwarjournal.org/
Amd Michael Yon is always worthwhile.
http://www.michaelyon-online.com/
Mudville Gazette
http://www.mudvillegazette.com/
You're welcome
Unfortuntely both Pat Dollard and Michael Yon share one thing in common in that both have been predicting an overwhelming Taliban spring offensive since at least 2006. While Dollard argued that the US would never retake Ramadi or Fallujah without thousands of casualties, the Sunni Awakening was hype and that Sadr would soon control all of the South. . Except with Sadr the last anybody heard from him was that his one year course to become an ayatollah seems to be working on it fourth year in Qom. Dollard is mainly for cranks but Yon admits when he is wrong and comes up with some gems often.
Long War Journal is excellent along with Small Wars Journal, Strategy Page, Defence Weekly, the very expensive Jane's, US Central Command, The Torch (Canadian), the web pages for the 1st and 3rd Armies and Steven Pressfield for larger tactical and strategy discussions.
Shoot, I just got an email reminding me that The Torch, using a new name, is by invitation only. Canadian war news is covered adequately through DND Talk.
hmmm I haven't investigate
http://www.longwarjournal.org/
though got it in archives
"In Afghanistan, the leadership in Moscow always knew this was all about the US and NATO trying to establish a new hegemony in Central Asia - full spectrum dominance all over again. But then Moscow found out - following the Chinese example of investing US$3 billion in mines south of Kabul - that the best of possible worlds would be to make money while the West got bogged down in a winless quagmire. Call it the Shanghai Cooperation Organization way of running rings around NATO."
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/LH27Df02.html
uh, the dindons de la farce, c'est nous !
Yeah an article that talks about Angelina Jolie and the completely discredited Paul Kennedy is very convincing. Considering that the best fighting force Russia has, the 58th Army is still in Georgia and South Ossetia signing contracts is about all they can do.
While China's deal for the Aynak copper depoits has turned into a bust, BTW the contract was signed two years ago, as barely 3% proved recoverable unless open pit mining is allowed. The Afghans might take the contract away from China as the deal was to start exatracting asap not manana.
though:
Russian subs stalk Trident in echo of Cold War http://bit.ly/cD7xBd
comme au bon vieux temps
WTF does this have to do with Afghanistan??
Nothing obviously as The Telegraph also made it quite clear that the Russians had failed in every attempt. But I would like to give MC the benefit of the doubt as her comment that she followed, "... american military blogs.." when she meant she followed blogs about the American military. At least I hope that is what she intended if not the relying on the comments there is tantamount to using numerology to decide one's daily schedule.
They failed in every attempt that we know of. But if they had attempted it and succeeded, it is unlikely we would have detected the attempt.
True, but MC was implying that the Cold War was back and that as usual the US, I don't know if she noticed it was the Royal Navy, is behind the curve once again.
only a professor Zebulon can dicern that
though some say:
"The Russians have been playing games with us, the Americans and French in the North Atlantic," a senior Navy commander said.
So why don't you try explaining your 'logic'?
Must not be all that logical, then.
it can't be written a school boy exercise book
Descartes proved the existence of Man by three words, "Cogito ergo sum." So it's certainly not unreasonable to expect an attempt to explain a particular logic.
but you aren't expecting a philophical dissertation, when you, yourself, defined the thought process
Molière wrote many plays about chicanery
http://tinyurl.com/375n5zp
you (and a few of your comrads) gave me plenty of stuff that could be a illustration of "Chicanery"
Instead of straw men and changing the subject how about answering Kevin's question?
strawmen, who that ? you ?
there is no reasonable response to a stoopid question
I think you just proved that.
Patterson, you're making a semantical Ponzi scham with wind
and I know of what I'm talking about,
as a former philosophy terminale class first price
Hmmm, sounds like a case of poor communications skills.
uh,
what are you talking about , ;-)
Sorry, it’s too subtle for you, and besides, it can’t be written in a schoolboy exercise book.
very good for a parrot !
so, when you look into a mirror, seeing me make you feel better ?
ça peut aller loin LMAO
You believe others see you when they look in a mirror? Seek professional help MC, you have serious, serious issues.
It took you quite a while to find your parade
I'm amusing at you since longer though,
but you have little imagination, Herr Professor zebulon is a bit more "coriace"
I don't know which is more irritating. the reference to obscurities or the attempt and failure to use American colloguisms. Neither advance an argument and only point out that there is essentially only one person on this thread that has used personal insults.
"Neither advance an argument and only point out that there is essentially only one person on this thread that has used personal insults."
welll that is laughable:
3/4 of the comments section is drowned with your pathological chicanery !
S/he is a troll, and should be treated as such.
hmmm, are you seeing yourself in your mirror ?
MC-Of the 59 comments here in this thread you have made, 25, almost half of them. Are you accusing yourself of chicanery?
Pat, I note that you have provided 15 of the comments.
Why don't you become active in your local Tea Party and get out a bit?
Sorry to disappoint your childish assumptions but I teach, research and surf. And at least my comments don't automatically brand anyone who disagrees with me a racist and they are all coherent.
uh then you need to change your glasses
BTW, being a teacher has never been an insurance against dumbness
And the old adage about a monkey, if given enough time, might produce a great piece of literature, could also apply to certain French revanchists. But in the meantime...
in you soporific dreams !
suppose that I'm not buying your sources !
Ah, Albert(a) is back at the keyboard. In all this you still haven't offered an explanation to Kevin.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=teMlv3ripSM&translated=1
the surfer is still on the wave
did you find what you were re-searching?
Well Pat we don't agree on every occasion and I must admit that I havn't followed this discussion.
But I can understand your reluctance against joining a political movement. They always have this dirty aura attached to them, don't they? That is at least what keeps me from joining one.
I try to follow Groucho Marx's advice when it comes to joining groups.
Small Wars Journal has an article which concentrates solely on Afghanistan as winnable, even Michael Yon is beginning to see some progress, according to Gen Petraeus. I think the Administration has basically given up on a timeline unless, as Iraq, they can either take the credit or blame Bush.
http://tinyurl.com/34mmed8
http://www.slate.fr/story/26445/russes-retour-afghanistan Les Russes sont de retour en Afghanistan Et ne sont pas forcément mal accueillis.
uh we don't see such new on the anglo-american medias
Probably for the same reason we don't often publish anything truely negative about the French. That would be like stealing the crutches off a one-legged man.
http://tinyurl.com/2waeott
hmmm you wouldn't have even known him if it wasn't "no pasaran" kind effort to flam anything french !
I give you more spice:
«C’est une guerre américaine. Quand vous êtes actionnaire à 1 %, vous n’avez pas la parole.»
http://tinyurl.com/36wyumg
uh look like he is right, but his intervention wasn't made in the opportune time, just after that MacCrystal was fired out
So the fact that I had to go to a French blog to read about the foot-in-mouth of a French general is lost on you? Proves my point we generally don't publish truely negative things about the French because it is inconsequential and often still born.
because you're bad losers, and too arrogant to listen to advices
"Faut-il continuer à laisser la technique diriger la stratégie générale ou doit-on la remettre à sa juste place" s'interroge Vincent Desportes. Familier du monde militaire d'Outre-Atlantique, le général décrit "la culture américaine qui donne à la technique un rôle central dans la résolution des problèmes."
hmmm, sure close contacts isn't a US speciality !
http://secretdefense.blogs.liberation.fr/defense/2009/07/desportes.html
you read french now ?
Petraeus asks NATO for troops
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/117325-reports-petraeus-asks-nato-for-troops
uh that mill not make it, he should ask Vlad !
"Russian P.M. Vladimir Putin and President Dmitry Medvedev are afraid of Taliban militancy fanning the flames of revolt in provinces such as Chechnya. They also fear that Afghanistan's poppy trade is hooking Russian youth on heroin and exacerbating Russia's demographic decline, threatening a further deterioration in its geo-political power. Russia now has about 141 million people, but it was 146 million or more in 1991. Its population is continuing to decline as deaths outstrip births every year, though the rate of decline has slowed. But Medvedev estimates that the country has as many as 2.5 million addicts, 2/3s of them under the age of 30. Afghan heroin is thus in danger of accelerating the population loss again. (Much of the population loss probably has to do with alcohol abuse by men to begin with, though the economic collapse and capitalist "shock therapy" may be implicated, as well). Since Afghanistan is now the source of 85 percent of the world's heroin, and since the poppy-growers thrive in a failed-state environment, the Russian Federation increasingly has an interest in seeing order imposed on Afghanistan and the poppy production slashed."
http://www.salon.com/news/feature/2009/09/09/cole
http://tinyurl.com/29ckbuq
Twenty years after Soviet humiliation, Russia seeks a return to Afghanistan
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