Posted by Kyle Atwell in
Transatlantic Relations on Friday, October 31. 2008
Christopher Meyer, former British Ambassador to the United States during 9/11, writes in the Telegraph:
I have no idea - I have never met him - what Obama thinks of Britain, though in one of his attacks against Bush, he dismissively brackets the UK with Togo. McCain, whom I knew well and liked, is to all appearances a declared anglophile. But, none of this is relevant. America will act on an unsentimental calculation of where its national interest lies. The problem with the rhetoric of the Special Relationship is that it implicitly denies this reality, putting a burden of expectation on the ties between our two countries, which they cannot bear.
Whoever wins, Britain must rest its relationship with America on four propositions: is America our single most important ally and partner? Absolutely. Does this mean that our national interests will always coincide? Absolutely not. Should we stand up for our interests when they diverge from the Americans? Absolutely. Will having rows with the US from time to time fatally undermine the closeness of the relationship? Absolutely not.
While Meyer concludes with a subtle endorsement for Obama, overall he leaves the impression that neither Obama nor McCain will necessarily be better for Britain, since "America will act on an unsentimental calculation of where its national interest lies." That is, it does not matter who is president, because the United States will always act the same way, based on what is in its best interests. As President Lincoln once said: "I claim not to have controlled events, but confess plainly that events have controlled me."
However, the argument that neither president will be better for Britain (or other allies in Europe, or the transatlantic alliance as a whole) attributes too little influence to the US executive branch. The fact is, different presidents push different policies and weigh the importance of allie's opinions differently. If Al Gore had been president in 2003, there is a good chance the US would not be at war in Iraq (or at least would have approached it in a less unilateral way), which would have prevented the transatlantic alliance from reaching a major low following the Iraq invasion.
McCain and Obama have different approaches to foreign relations, different world views, and different personal styles -- and one of them will be "better" for Britain than the other, regardless of events.
Posted by Joerg Wolf in
Transatlantic Relations on Friday, October 31. 2008
Jan Techau, head of the Alfred von Oppenheim Center for European Studies at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) wrote an insightful op-ed in July, which is still very relevant. Techau described the European attitude towards the US election campaign:
It is just like when worried parents are wondering what kind of boyfriend their beloved daughter is going to be bringing home this time. It is true that they no longer have any say whatsoever in the choice, but nevertheless they have a very concrete idea of exactly what he should look like.
Although most Europeans believe that US voters will decide the future of transatlantic relations on November 4th, it is actually Europe that will determine the meaning, benevolence and usefulness of transatlantic. We have to make up our minds:
The burden of debt, trade deficit, crisis in the financial markets, the dollar exchange rate and recession force the giant [= the United States, ed.] onto a more pragmatic political course, but America will not be able to change its foreign policy as much as many Europeans would like to see. For this reason the question of who would be a more comfortable president for Europe is neither here nor there. The meaning, benevolence, and usefulness of transatlantic relations are in reality actually decided upon in Europe and not in America. It is the Europeans who will have to give up their reluctance in all things concerning global governance. Without robust and sometimes hard contributions to international stability and conflict resolution the world will become an unsafer place, as America becomes (in relative terms) weaker.
Read Jan Techau's op-ed: America Votes, but Europe Decides on the Future of Transatlantic Relations.
Posted by Joerg Wolf in
Transatlantic Relations on Sunday, October 26. 2008
Tapmag, a blog by students of the JFK-Institute for North America Studies at the Free University, Berlin, writes:
One indicator for the influence of a nation in the world is the number of people willing to devote their academic career to the studies of said nation. According to this measure, the future isn't looking very bright for the United States, if you follow this article in Time magazine. Applications for American Studies have significantly dropped in Great Britain in the last years, even though regional studies are still in fashion.
Okay, now the kids want to learn Chinese, so that they can talk to the next superpower. Fine. Let's see, if they are happy with that decision in three decades.
I am more concerned about this quote from the Walter Grünzweig, professor of American studies at Dortmund University: "Students don't trust us. We have to convince them that we're not part of the propaganda branch of the American Embassy."
Posted by Editors in
Transatlantic Relations, US Foreign Policy on Sunday, October 26. 2008
This is a guest post by Dr. Assem Akram, author of two books on modern Afghan History and two works of fiction. He was born in Kabul in 1965, studied in Paris, where he obtained his PhD from the Sorbonne. He now lives in Springfield, Virginia, with his wife and two sons.
To save Afghanistan from the current downward spiral, radical changes and serious rethinking are needed. Here are laid out the four legs of a plan that would decisively change the equation:
1) Fast-pace the build-up of the Afghan Army so that it quickly reaches a minimum of 150,000 - and ideally 250,000 - men.
2) Reorient the mission of all US and international troops to cease all operations inside Afghanistan to exclusively concentrate - under a new UN mandate - on the border with Pakistan and hermetically close it.
3) Dramatically increase pressure - including imposing sanctions - on Pakistan to do its part to halt cross border militant violence.
4) Overhaul the Afghan political process to favor the creation of a new interim governing entity capable of showing independence, effectiveness, integrity; a Government that presents a new public face at the helm of a new strategy and which can restore confidence inside and outside of Afghanistan and radically change the existing equation.
Read his full article below the fold:
Continue reading "A New Strategy for Afghanistan"
Posted by Editors in
European Issues, US Foreign Policy on Friday, October 24. 2008
Paddy Ashdown and Richard Holbrooke in The Guardian:
Almost exactly 13 years ago, American leadership brought an end to Bosnia's three-and-a-half-year war through the Dayton peace agreement. Today the country is in real danger of collapse. As in 1995, resolve and transatlantic unity are needed if we are not to sleepwalk into another crisis.
Posted by Joerg Wolf in
Transatlantic Relations on Thursday, October 23. 2008
Atlantic-community.org summarizes five press commentaries every day. Here's a sample from today, which exemplifies the Weekly Standard's simplistic weekly standard criticism of Western Europe, but it is full of catchy phrases, incl. its headline, and that is all that matters: "Old Europe, New Europe, Red Europe, blue Europe." And my colleague Jesse came up with an even better headline for his summary: Effete Germany Cozies up to Russia, Scorns NATO
Seth Cropsey, The Hudson Institute | October 23, 2008
“Old” and “new” Europe parallel the blue and red state split in the US. ++ In old (western) Europe Obama is viewed as a “ray of hope;” new (central and eastern) Europe raises the question, “Who is Obama?” ++ This can be attributed to a difference in threat perceptions. ++ Nowhere is this exemplified more than in Germany. ++ There, a proto-Kantian foreign relations paradigm, coupled with the quest for a plushy welfare state, renders Germany at “the center of Western Europe’s strategic blindness.” ++ To Germans, “Russia is good… NATO is bad.”
Posted by Joerg Wolf in
Transatlantic Relations on Wednesday, October 22. 2008
General John Craddock, the Supreme Allied Commander Europe for NATO, got pretty outspoken about internal and external challenges in Afghanistan and elsewhere. Speaking at the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI) on October 20, 2008, General Craddock even raised the issue of NATO's relevancy:
A brief look at the will of our alliance in the mission in Afghanistan demonstrates some real shortcomings. In view of the more than 70 national operational restrictions, or 'caveats', and our continual inability to fill our agreed-upon statement of requirements in theatre, we are demonstrating a political will that is somewhat wavering. And it is this wavering political will that impedes operational progress and brings into question the relevancy of the Alliance here in the 21st century.´
Craddock made some good, but hardly surprising suggestions about funding and speeding up the decision-making processes. You can start the debate over at Atlantic Community: How to Keep NATO Relevant?
Atlantic Community is now addressing Afghanistan as a focus topic and also features an article by Morgan Sheeran, veteran of the US Armed Forces with 26 years of service including a tour in Afghanistan: Afghan Surge: More Police Trainers Essential. The first comment below that article is from Florian Broschk, who has been serving four tours with ISAF in Afghanistan. He also taught Dari (the second most popular language in Afghanistan) to Bundeswehr soldiers.
Posted by Joerg Wolf in
International Economics on Sunday, October 19. 2008
Europe has set the pace for the United States, opines the New York Times (HT: David): After initially dithering, Europe's leaders came up with a financial bailout plan that has now set the pace for Washington, not the other way around, as had been customary for decades. That was clear when the Treasury Department decided to depart from its own initial bailout plan - the one approved by Congress earlier this month - and invest up to $250 billion directly in the nation's banks. The nuts and bolts of that approach had been laid out days earlier by European leaders as they tried to save their own financial system. And that outcome left Gordon Brown, the British prime minister, and Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, in something of a commanding position to claim the title of wise men. They are now speaking of creating a Bretton Woods agreement for the 21st century. Let's hope this will lead to less derogatory remarks about European "socialism" and welfare waste. Perhaps "European socialism" will even get a positive meaning, i.e. McCain's comparison of Obama to European socialists will not help him win votes. Well, Europe has not got the financial crisis under control. There will probably be plenty of bad news and more government interventions ahead of us. I wonder who will call the shots in the new Bretton Woods style agreement, if there will be one. What role will China and the various Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds play?
Posted by Joerg Wolf in
US Foreign Policy on Sunday, October 19. 2008
Ulrich Ladurner writes in the respected German weekly Die Zeit:
Since the United States is experiencing a crisis of monumental proportions, Osama must genuinely feel that his prophecy has become a reality. More than a decade ago, he set out to vanquish America and its villainous puppets in the Arabian Gulf - nothing more, nothing less. Back then this must have appeared like folly, because the U.S. was at the zenith of its power and Osama and his people were considered nothing more than a fanatical gang of murderers.
Today we are witnessing the rapid decline of the United States, a trend which some consider to be irreversible. Osama has victory in his sights. Whether that's true or not shouldn't be debated here. This is about recognizing that this is the view of Osama bin Laden. This is about catching a glimpse of the world of ideas espoused by these fanatics.
Read the article in the German original or the English translation.
These days, Die Zeit is even more pessimistic about the power of the United States than usually. Jan Ross writes about the Heroes of the Retreat:
How can the land of victories and optimism come to terms with a life after the imperial moment? Learning to decline - is it doable? Can a world power that no longer presumes to dominate the world find a new role without depression or biting fear? Is there life after the imperial moment? That is the question that the United States faces, and that will define the term of the next American President.
Posted by Editors in
German Politics on Thursday, October 16. 2008
The Wall Street Journal (HT: John):
It's not surprising that Berlin's ambassador in Tehran apparently thought nothing of sending a military envoy to Iran's "Down with Israel" rally. He simply put Germany's mouth where its money already is.
Related posts in Atlantic Review:
• Germany's Biggest Bank to Cut Business Ties to Iran
• "Germany's Iran Lobby"
• A Different Kind of Quagmire: Iran
• Political Science Theories on the Likelihood of War between the US and Iran
Endnote: Sorry for the lack of posts recently. Please check out the frequently updated list of recommended articles in the sidebar.
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