|
< Previous Post | Next Post >
Thursday, May 11. 2006Bush and Merkel: Charm and Iran -- War, Sanctions and DiplomacyPosted by Joerg Wolf in International Economics, Transatlantic Relations on Thursday, May 11. 2006
Some in the American media hope and a few in the German media fear that President Bush's "charm offensive" will lead to German support for U.S. policy on Iran. However, it is very unlikely that President Bush's kind of charm has an impact on Chancellor Merkel. The importance of the personal relationship between heads of government is often overestimated. Besides, President Bush might not expect a military contribution in a potential war with Iran anyway, because he told the German tabloid Bild (White House transcript) concerning the disagreements over Iraq:
I've come to realize that the nature of the German people are such that war is very abhorrent, that Germany is a country now that is -- no matter where they sit on the political spectrum, Germans are -- just don't like war. And I can understand that. There's a generation of people who had their lives torn about because of a terrible war.The Bush administration has high hopes in Merkel, because Blair and Chirac are pre-occupied with internal party politics and President Bush's Spanish and Italian allies, Aznar and Berlusconi, have not been re-elected. According to the International Herald Tribune,"Angela Merkel has steadily emerged as the European leader to watch" and "demonstrated a real skill in effective, low-key diplomacy. It worked in Europe, where she brokered a key compromise on the European Union budget last January." The German government works hard for a diplomatic solution and makes use of its good relationship with Russia and China and considers using its significant leverage over Iran. Commercial sanctions against Iran could prove very effective, as the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung points out (translation by Transatlantic Intelligencer): More comprehensive sanctions [i.e. including commercial sanctions] would be tied to ever higher costs also for the West – and, in particular, for Germany. Should commercial sanctions be applied, it would be first and foremost the EU states that are affected. In 2004, Germany was the most important supplier of Iran (12.3% of all imports), followed by France (8.5%), Italy (7.9%), and China (7.5%). Due to its long-term cooperation with Europe and a lack of local know-how, Iran is particularly dependent upon imports in the automobile and machine-building industries and the oil and gas sectors. As consequence, Iran could be highly susceptible to sanctions.Part of President Bush's charm offensive -- a term that was frequently used in the media recently -- might have been his remarks about wanting to close Guantanamo, get trials for the detainees and wait for the supreme court; see our earlier post. Prof. Hammel points out that some reaction in the U.S. media is only now starting to burble up. Slate, for instance, writes: "His statement was surprising for several reasons, not least because it represents a major reversal from prior policy statements about the camp." More at Prof. Hammel's German Joys. Comments
Display comments as
(Linear | Threaded)
Clarsonimus
- #1 - 2006-05-11 21:58 - (Reply)
I can't help but think that Merkel is the one who is doing all the charming. And the US government is understandably delighted that they have someone to talk "with" in Berlin again. Schröder made anything but a clean break, but it was definitely a real one (as in final). The relationship between these two countries will never be like it was before this happened, but I think everyone feels that Merkel is trustworthy enough to, if not mend the break, at least start something real herself. It won’t be what the US really wants, of course, but nobody expects that anymore. Comments ()
Jorg
- #1.1 - 2006-05-11 22:13 - (Reply)
What kind of charming things did she say? Did she catch a glimps of President Bush's souls as well? Did she talk about Texas? Comments ()
Zyme
- #3 - 2006-05-12 12:32 - (Reply)
The younger generation doesnt have a problem with war in general I would argue, as long as it is a reasonable one. Which means: since the taxpayer has to pay for it, he/she wants to see some benefits in it. Comments ()
Zyme
- #4 - 2006-05-12 12:37 - (Reply)
A fine example is the Kongo case. Comments ()
Jorg
- #4.1 - 2006-05-12 13:02 - (Reply)
Zyme, I would add that in addition to benefits the likelihood of success should play a role as well. I think the likelihood of successful airstrikes is small. Airstrikes against Iran will not stop the Iranian nuclear program, but only delay the nuclear program, while encouraging a rally around the flag effect, increase support for the regime in Iran, and delegitimate all reformers who ever tried to work for reconciliation with the West. Comments ()
joe
- #5 - 2006-05-12 17:01 - (Reply)
It would appear there are no alternatives but to surrender to Iran. Comments ()
Joerg
- #5.1 - 2006-05-12 17:36 - (Reply)
Joe. Comments ()
joe
- #6 - 2006-05-12 19:19 - (Reply)
We should leave everything to the experts, OK. I have a degree of respect for the products RAND produces. I also very much think their views should be considered along with those of others who I also respect. Comments ()
Kathy - At the Zoo
- #6.1 - 2006-05-12 21:39 - (Reply)
"This really shows a lack of trust by the West if one jumps to the conclusion this is part of a weapons program." Comments ()
Fuchur
- #6.1.1 - 2006-05-12 22:47 - (Reply)
I guess Kathy missed your sarcasm. Serves you right, joe :-) Comments ()
Dr. Dean
- #6.2 - 2006-05-15 13:41 - (Reply)
@Joe Comments ()
Kathy - At the Zoo
- #7 - 2006-05-12 20:10 - (Reply)
The point that bombing Iran facilities MIGHT make Iranians pull together behind their government is a valid one. Comments ()
Fuchur
- #7.1 - 2006-05-12 22:43 - (Reply)
I really don´t know what you want from the Europeans. Last week, Merkel and Bush announced that they were in full agreement over the issue of Iran. Comments ()
Harry
- #8 - 2006-05-13 14:43 - (Reply)
Here is an article that describes how the dollar inflation which is exported to the world is in fact a system of monetary imperialism, not so different from the Romans or British who had their colonies pay tribute. However, the system is more concealed, however, it works just as well. Comments ()
joe
- #9 - 2006-05-13 21:55 - (Reply)
Fuchur, Comments ()
Zyme
- #10 - 2006-05-13 22:03 - (Reply)
Not only will they go bankrupt long before we do, they will also have to worry about a great part of their population being too fat to be of any use anymore. Has anyone read the recently corrected numbers? Comments ()
joe
- #11 - 2006-05-13 22:27 - (Reply)
. Comments ()
Jorg
- #12 - 2006-05-14 09:33 - (Reply)
Talking about obesity: Comments ()
Martin
- #13 - 2006-05-14 23:20 - (Reply)
Sarcasm is always a great way to criticize others without sharing your own point of view, which might be full of illogic as well. Comments ()
joe
- #14 - 2006-05-15 01:12 - (Reply)
Martin, Comments ()
joe
- #15 - 2006-05-15 05:41 - (Reply)
Martin, Comments ()
The Editors of the Atlantic Review
- #15.1 - 2006-05-15 10:09 - (Reply)
Although we appreciate open discussions on our blog, we do not consider "Frau Fuehrer" an appropriate choice of words when speaking about Chancellor Merkel. Comments ()
Fuchur
- #15.2 - 2006-05-15 13:36 - (Reply)
@joe Comments ()
Joerg
- #15.2.1 - 2006-05-15 13:49 - (Reply)
Thanks, Fuchur. I appreciate that. Comments ()
Fuchur
- #15.2.1.1 - 2006-05-15 14:26 - (Reply)
Well, thanks for your interesting blog! Comments ()
joe
- #16 - 2006-05-15 14:17 - (Reply)
Thank you for bringing to my attention the unacceptable usage of the word Fueher of this blog. I found the translation of this word meant leader. I assumed it was an acceptable usage in this form as it is used by some German M$M when referring to the POTUS. Comments ()
Joerg
- #16.1 - 2006-05-15 14:38 - (Reply)
You are referring to Spiegel Online. Comments ()
Dr. Dean
- #16.2 - 2006-05-15 20:58 - (Reply)
Hey Joe, don't worry! Comments ()
joe
- #17 - 2006-05-16 01:12 - (Reply)
Fuchur Comments ()
Jorg
- #18 - 2006-05-16 01:55 - (Reply)
"Critical" means that we are not singing childrens songs about transatlantic relations ("I love you, you love me, we are happy family") as some organizations devoted to better transatlantic relations do. Comments ()
|
Contact UsEmail Joerg Wolf and Kyle Atwell at:
ar-team AT atlanticreview.org We are available for interviews, and appreciate feedback and suggestions. Subscribe and FollowWelcome!
You are reading the ATLANTIC REVIEW, a Press Digest on Transatlantic Relations combined with commentary and analysis. More about us. Follow Atlantic Review on Facebook or on Twitter. Subscribe to one of our RSS-Feeds or to our newsletter. SponsorSUPPORT THIS SITEBlogrollHot TopicsClick on one of the following links to see all Atlantic Review posts about this topic in a chronological order with the latest post on top:
Afghanistan Anti-Americanism Economics Iran Iraq Merkel Polls Terrorism Click here for the full list of all topics. |
Home - About Us - Newsletter - Transatlantic Relations - US Foreign Policy - Various RSS Feeds Designed for Atlantic Review by Carl.


Ahead of President Bush's visit to Germany next week, The Economist is concerned that "America may expect too much help from Germany, whether on Iran, the Balkans or Russia." The respected British weekly acknowledges that Chancellor Merkel impro Comments ()
Tracked: Jul 07, 21:21