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Considering the Consequences of Withdrawal from IraqPosted by Joerg Wolf in US Foreign Policy on Tuesday, July 24. 2007
Peter W Rodman and William Shawcross argue in a NYT op-ed that the consequences of defeat in Iraq would be as disastrous for the region and for the United States as the 1975 Communist victory in Vietnam was for Cambodia and Vietnam.
Defeat would embolden extremists and destabilize moderate governments in the Arab world. "Millions of Iraqis see the United States as their only hope." Besides, "US conduct in Iraq is crucial test of American credibility." Marc Schulman reviews this op-ed in his blog AMERICAN FUTURE and adds: Our defeat in Vietnam and the subsequent isolationist sentiment made it easier for the Soviets to decide to take the risk [to invade Afghanistan]. Without engaging in historical determinism, it’s fair to say that the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan set in motion a chain of events that culminated in 9/11. In the minds of bin Laden and his compatriots, the jihadists had defeated one of the world’s two superpowers and were responsible for its collapse. (...)PERSONAL COMMENT: The real question is: Can the US still win in Iraq? In other words: Can the US avoid all the above mentioned negative consequences, if the US stays in Iraq with current number of US troops for three or five more years? Those in favor of immediate withdrawal do not like a defeat either, but they think that the US cannot win in Iraq, i.e. the US can only decide between a defeat/withdrawal now or defeat/withdrawal in two, three, or five years. So do you want the above mentioned negative consequences now or in two, three, or five years? Perhaps those in favor of staying in Iraq could explain how many more years they want to give this Iraq project and what number of coalition forces casualties is acceptable to them. It is very much in Europe's interest that the US succeeds in Iraq, because Europe would suffer from a further destabilization of the region. Thus, it is in my interest to call upon the United States to stay at least ten more years in Iraq. If the US succeeds, that is great for Europe. If the US fails and all hell breaks lose after the US withdrawal in ten years, then we Europeans at least got ten more years. Thus I should be against a US withdrawal. I am, however, not very optimistic that the US will succeed within ten years. I tend to believe that the US cannot fix Iraq. Thus, I am wondering if it can still be justified to send young American and British men and women into this war, if I tend to think that the US will lose. As a German, who benefited so much from the US military, I do not have the right to call upon the Americans to risk their lives in an unwinnable war. This line of thought might also be one of the reasons, why German politicans do not say whether the US should stay or withdraw from Iraq. What do you think? Welcome! You are reading the ATLANTIC REVIEW -- a Press Digest on Transatlantic Relations combined with commentary and analysis by three young professionals from Germany, the Netherlands and the United States. More about us. The horizontal menu bar at the top helps to navigate this site. Subscribe to one of our RSS-Feeds or to our newsletter, which is emailed twice per month.Trackbacks
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Anonymous
- #1 - 2007-07-24 03:00 -
Can the US still win in Iraq? Comments (3)
Joerg - Atlantic Review
- #1.1 - 2007-07-24 11:07 -
No insult or anything like that intended. Comments (7)
Don S
- #1.1.1 - 2007-07-24 14:16 -
How long? Long enough to give the Iraqi people a chance to make up their minds whether they wish the massadrah or democracy. Whehther they can live at peace which each other. Comments (7)
Joerg - Atlantic Review
- #1.1.1.1 - 2007-07-24 21:16 -
@ Don, Comments (7)
Don S
- #1.1.1.1.1 - 2007-07-25 11:24 -
No, I can't be completely specific. Not forever - possibly as long as another couple of years. Comments (7)
Joerg - Atlantic Review
- #1.1.1.1.1.1 - 2007-07-25 11:49 -
@ Don Comments (7)
Zyme
- #1.1.1.1.1.2 - 2007-07-25 15:16 -
"Democracy is a 'nice to have' but if we can avert a blood bath even with a dictator or an oligarchy - I'd settle for that." Comments (3)
Don S
- #1.1.1.1.1.2.1 - 2007-07-25 21:08 -
Ummmm, no Zyme. Not so. Comments (7)
Anonymous
- #1.1.2 - 2007-07-24 19:40 -
They are not insulting, but go to the core of it. Comments (3)
Joerg - Atlantic Review
- #1.1.2.1 - 2007-07-24 21:07 -
"This venture is fundamental and of primary importance." Comments (7)
Don S
- #1.1.2.1.1 - 2007-07-24 21:15 -
Tired of being stereotyped as crazed nazi torture-fiend war-crimimals? Comments (7)
Joerg - Atlantic Review
- #1.1.2.1.1.1 - 2007-07-24 21:24 -
Why should Americans care about the debate in Germany? Comments (7)
Don S
- #1.1.2.1.1.1.1 - 2007-07-25 14:10 -
"Why should Americans care about the debate in Germany?" Comments (7)
Zyme
- #1.1.2.1.1.1.1.1 - 2007-07-25 15:25 -
It is very sobering to see that you still think so much in terms of grattitude when discussing international politics. Don´t you see that there never will be any grattitude from Europe as long as it plays second fiddle? Comments (3)
Don S
- #1.1.2.1.1.1.1.1.1 - 2007-07-25 15:57 -
Ok, Zyme, let's explain this in realpolitik. Comments (7)
Zyme
- #1.1.2.1.1.1.1.1.1.1 - 2007-07-25 19:14 -
Realpolitik is good. Maybe this explains the european stance: Comments (3)
bob
- #1.1.2.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1 - 2007-07-25 20:50 -
Most points supra are realistic assumptions. NATO is largely irrelevant, if the core purpose of the alliance is to defend Europe from Soviet invasion. The NATO operation in Afghanistan is laughable, as are the number and quality of the European fighting forces. America would prefer to liberate its troops from garrison duty in Germany, but how can they without potentially disturbing the internal political equilibrium of European politics? The European post war landscape is built on the assumption of forced German passivity. It seems far-fetched and even silly now, but the French, Poles, Czechs and Danes all sleep easier knowing that the Herrenvolk has a few American armoured divisions within their borders. A precipitate withdrawal might encourage Russia to attack the Baltics or the Ukraine. Territorial acquisition for economic gain does seem so 18th century, but what about the Kremlin's current foreign policy smacks of the 3rd millenia? Comment (1)
Don S
- #1.1.2.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1.1 - 2007-07-25 21:18 -
"internal political equilibrium of European politics" Comments (7)
Marc Schulman
- #2 - 2007-07-24 03:01 -
Joerg: Comment (1)
Pat Patterson
- #3 - 2007-07-24 03:24 -
I found it fascinating that William Shawcross, who had exociated Nixon and Kissinger and obviously the United States as well in his book, Sideshow. In it he argued that the US policy put those countries into danger, Laos and Cambodia, and that there was simply no moral or more importantly political justification for any futher US involvement there. But five years later in another book, The Quality of Mercy, Shawcross did almost a complete about face and argued that regardless of the cause of the war the US, by leaving precipitately caused the situation to worsen beyond belief. Comment (1)
David
- #5 - 2007-07-24 21:11 -
What the Bush apologists think here is irrelevant - it's all over but the shouting. The American people have abandoned this war (7 out of 8) - there is absolutely no way they will change their opinion and support the occupation. It is only a matter of time before US troops are withdrawn. Too bad more have to die in the short term because of the delusional surge. Comment (1)
Annonymous
- #6 - 2007-07-24 21:44 -
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/02/09/AR2007020901917.html Comments (2)
Greg
- #7 - 2007-07-24 23:39 -
I agree with those who think the consequences of failure in Iraq would be disastrous. An emboldened al Qaeda that can claim victory is undesirable to say the least. They could even set up training camps in the western desert. Iran's influence grows. The kurds, so grateful for what America's sacrifice has brought them, would be attacked by Turkey. Comments (2)
Joerg - Atlantic Review
- #7.1 - 2007-07-25 00:03 -
Yes, that is the dilemma. Comments (7)
Greg
- #7.1.1 - 2007-07-25 01:14 -
Now that you mention it, joerg, I haven't heard European leaders saying the US should get out. In fact, they've pretty much avoided the subject for the past couple of years, probably b/c they don't want to piss off DC by saying anything on the subject, or piss off their own people by suggesting the US needs to stay in Iraq. Comments (2)
Joerg - Atlantic Review
- #7.1.1.1 - 2007-07-25 01:35 -
I agree, the Europen press is not even handed. Comments (7)
watcher
- #8 - 2007-07-25 20:39 -
Here is the latest editorial comment by the NY Times, arguing that George W. Bush acts rather like a king than a president. Comment (1)
Anonymous
- #9 - 2007-07-25 21:27 -
Excellent. The NYT comes out with a strict constructalist interpretation of the 'commander and chief' role, conveniently omitting that such an interpretation would automatically nullify every social programme they hold dear: New Deal legislation, Roe v. Wade, dormant commerce clause, affirmative action...Nor does it mention that Congress can cut off spending for the Iraq war and related discretionary funding if it had the votes. There is not a plurality in Congress willing to even pass a budget that would accomplish this laudable act and certainly not enough votes in the Senate to override a Presidential veto. Comments (3)
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