Turkey is the most anti-American countryPosted by Kyle Atwell in Transatlantic Relations on Thursday, November 20. 2008
Soner Cagaptay writes a letter to President-Elect Obama in Newsweek warning that Turkey, a NATO ally, is The Most Anti-American Nation:
Dear President-Elect Obama: As you take office, I am enthusiastically watching your desire to win hearts and minds around the world. But I am concerned in particular about Turkey. This nation is the embodiment of what the United States and the West want to achieve around the world. It is predominantly Muslim, yet Western and democratic. But the Turks are vehemently anti-American, so much so that they consistently rank in polls as the most anti-American country in the world. According to the Pew Center's latest poll, only 12 percent of the Turks like the United States—fewer, even, than the percentage of Pakistanis. Obamania in Turkey will help you change America's image, but given the dismal numbers, I am afraid that might not be enough. Despite the close cooperation with the United States on Iraq, Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) government has taken the easy way, bashing America at home in an attempt to boost its own popularity. But you should not ignore Turkey. Because of its strategic location, Turkey is a key partner to the United States in tackling many foreign-policy challenges. You will need Turkish support and the Turkish base at Incirlik to achieve many of your goals, such as withdrawing troops from Iraq.Turkish frustration with the European Union is understandable considering Europeans have been teasing Turkey with the prospect of EU membership for decades. A series of essays on Turkey - EU relations is available in the most recent issue of Re-public journal titled “Turkey – European Union: A long-standing misunderstanding” (HT: Kevin Hilke) On the other hand, anti-US sentiment is a little more surprising. Cagaptay’s argument that Turkey is the most anti-American country (or at least very close to it) is further corroborated by polls from the 2007 Pew Global Attitudes Project, which show Turks as having one of the lowest “very favorable” views toward the US at about 2% and the highest “very unfavorable” rating at 75% (PDF: poll on world perspective toward the US on page 6). "Obama Effect": increased diversity in global politics?Posted by Kyle Atwell in European Issues on Monday, November 17. 2008
“Prejudice in Europe is more than skin deep”, writes Columbia University historian Mark Mazower in the Financial Times:
Europeans find it hard adjusting to a colour-blind world. Indeed their hesitancy is growing. In Austria, the extreme right carved out big gains in September’s general elections. Pope Benedict weighed in over the summer to warn against a possible resurgence of fascist values in Italy. Europe as a whole, according to recent polls, has become significantly more xenophobic over the past few years. Fears of Islamic terrorism and anxiety about globalisation have fed this trend. So has fervent anti-European Union sentiment, strongly correlated to populist anti-immigrant rhetoric. By contrast, Mr Obama’s story is that of the immigrant dream, a tale of upwardly-mobile success that cut decisively across race lines. Immigrant voters played a decisive electoral role in Mr Obama’s win, yet immigration – for all the prior public debate – figured little as a campaign issue.It will be interesting to see if a black president in America will reverse the trend of rising xenophobia in Europe cited by Mazower. Al Jazeera also poses an interesting question, "Will the 'Obama effect' encourage more diversity in global politics?" See also from Atlantic Review: * Five Reasons Obama Would not be Elected in Europe What will Britain do when Obama asks for more troops in Afghanistan?Posted by Kyle Atwell in Transatlantic Relations on Saturday, November 15. 2008
The UK may send an additional 2,000 troops to Afghanistan if President-elect Obama makes a request to allies, according to the BBC:
The BBC diplomatic correspondent James Robbins said British officials had told him there would be negotiations with the U.S. commander in Afghanistan, General David Petraeus, "and more than one has told me to expect agreement for between 1,500 and 2,000 extra British troops."The Defense Ministry has made no official commitment, but there is little doubt Britain will feel pressure to contribute more, particularly considering the US will be increasingly focused on Afghanistan under the Obama administration, to include raising troop levels itself. However, sending more troops will be no easy decision for Britain's politicians; public opposition to maintaining British troops in Afghanistan is strong according to a recent survey reported by the BBC: ICM asked a random sample of 1,013 adults whether or not Britain should withdraw its armed forces from Afghanistan within the next 12 months.I am curious if the majority of Brits and others across Europe who supported Obama were aware of his intention to intensify Western efforts in Afghanistan, and what that might mean for them? It will be interesting to see how the European public responds when these requests inevitably begin to arrive from the iconic new American president. See also from Atlantic Review: * Is Europe "Ready to be Obama stakeholders, not free-riders"? Obama and Missile DefensePosted by Kyle Atwell in US Foreign Policy on Thursday, November 13. 2008
A week after declaring his intentions to position Iskander tactical missiles in Kaliningrad region in response to US missile defense plans for Europe, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev lays out his terms (Reuters):
But we are ready to abandon this decision to deploy the missiles in Kaliningrad if the new American administration, after analyzing the real usefulness of a system to respond to 'rogue states', decides to abandon its anti-missile system.Obama can expect pull in the other direction by the US Missile Defense Agency, whose outgoing Director Lt. Gen. Trey Obering argues missile defense technology may be farther along than the President-Elect believes (CNNPolitics.com): Our testing has shown not only can we hit a bullet with a bullet, we can hit a spot on the bullet with a bullet. The technology has caught up. What we have discovered is, a lot of those folks that have not been in this administration seem to be dated in terms of the program. They are kind of calibrated back in the 2000 timeframe.Jeff Lindemyer links to two articles that offer a view of what Obama’s stance on missile defense was during the campaign at Nukes of Hazard. See also from Atlantic Review: * Is Russia a Superpower? Cold War II? * United States and Poland Agree on Missile Defense Deal * Georgia Conflict Gives Boost to European Missile Defense Talks
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Defined tags for this entry: Defense, Military, Missile Defense, Nukes, Obama, Proliferation, Russia, Stategy
Two Different Paths to NATO: Georgia and UkrainePosted by Kyle Atwell in US Foreign Policy on Friday, November 7. 2008
Ukraine and Georgia were previously anticipated to take the next step toward full NATO membership, attaining Membership Action Plans (MAPs), at an upcoming December NATO Ministerial. However, Georgia’s conflict with Russia and the destabilizing, perennial internal political squabbles between President Yushchenko and Prime Minister Tymoshenko in Ukraine has made a 2008 MAP for either country all but impossible to imagine.
Steven Pifer, Visiting Fellow at the Brookings Institution, believes that in this situation, it would be unwise for the US to push hard for MAPs in December. Instead the US should develop a Plan B for moving Georgia and Ukraine toward membership: Rather than pursuing a quest certain to end in diplomatic failure, Washington needs a Plan B. It should aim to shape a December outcome that sends positive signals to Kyiv and Tbilisi while making clear that NATO does not concede Ukraine or Georgia to Russia’s geopolitical orbit.Pifer outlines his own Plan B proposal here. Continue reading "Two Different Paths to NATO: Georgia and Ukraine" Five Reasons Obama would not be Elected in EuropePosted by Kyle Atwell in Transatlantic Relations, US Domestic and Cultural Issues on Tuesday, November 4. 2008
Denis Boyles argues in the National Review that while the vast majority of Europeans are hoping Obama will be elected President of the United States today, he would not have a chance of success were he running to lead any European country. Boyles offers five reasons why:
1. “His tax policies are frightening,” in that they are too far left for Europe. 2. “His views on abortion are way too extreme for Europeans.” 3. “His lack of experience means trouble.” 4. “He’s in love with failed ideas.” Boyles calls Obama a “socialist romantic”, compares his policies to the EU Constitution, and then argues that the dream of Obama and all liberals is to have kids raised by the state – the first argument makes no sense and the second argument is simply not true. 5. “His name, incidentally, is Barack Hussein Obama. Sorry to save this for last, but the sad fact is a politician with Obama’s racial and ethnic background wouldn’t stand a chance in the U.K., France, Germany, Italy, or anywhere else in the European Union no matter how charming his speeches were.” Continue reading "Five Reasons Obama would not be Elected in Europe" Would McCain or Obama be Better for Britain?Posted by Kyle Atwell in Transatlantic Relations on Friday, October 31. 2008
Christopher Meyer, former British Ambassador to the United States during 9/11, writes in the Telegraph:
I have no idea - I have never met him - what Obama thinks of Britain, though in one of his attacks against Bush, he dismissively brackets the UK with Togo. McCain, whom I knew well and liked, is to all appearances a declared anglophile. But, none of this is relevant. America will act on an unsentimental calculation of where its national interest lies. The problem with the rhetoric of the Special Relationship is that it implicitly denies this reality, putting a burden of expectation on the ties between our two countries, which they cannot bear.While Meyer concludes with a subtle endorsement for Obama, overall he leaves the impression that neither Obama nor McCain will necessarily be better for Britain, since "America will act on an unsentimental calculation of where its national interest lies." That is, it does not matter who is president, because the United States will always act the same way, based on what is in its best interests. As President Lincoln once said: "I claim not to have controlled events, but confess plainly that events have controlled me." However, the argument that neither president will be better for Britain (or other allies in Europe, or the transatlantic alliance as a whole) attributes too little influence to the US executive branch. The fact is, different presidents push different policies and weigh the importance of allie's opinions differently. If Al Gore had been president in 2003, there is a good chance the US would not be at war in Iraq (or at least would have approached it in a less unilateral way), which would have prevented the transatlantic alliance from reaching a major low following the Iraq invasion. McCain and Obama have different approaches to foreign relations, different world views, and different personal styles -- and one of them will be "better" for Britain than the other, regardless of events.
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Defined tags for this entry: Al Gore, Alliance, Britain, Election, Elections, foreign politics, McCain, Obama, presidential candidate
Georgia’s Bid: Western Values for Western SecurityPosted by Kyle Atwell in Transatlantic Relations, US Foreign Policy on Monday, September 29. 2008
Georgia’s president published a plea for continued western support in the Washington Post titled, “Answering Russian Aggression”. In it, President Mikheil Saakashvili promises an increase in Georgian transparency in exchange for continued support from and integration into the West.
Perhaps most significant to the West will be Saakashvili’s promise to increase transparency and openness of the Georgian state itself, to include reforms aimed at strengthening the opposition and liberalizing the media. Of course all good things come with a price, and for Georgia to continue its Western embrace, Saakashvili is asking for some help in return: But the West also must respond to Russia with conviction. We cannot allow Russia's annexation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia to stand. Nor can Moscow be permitted to continuously flout the cease-fire to which it has repeatedly agreed. Continue reading "Georgia’s Bid: Western Values for Western Security"
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Defined tags for this entry: Afghanistan, Civil Liberties, Civil Rights, Defense, European Union, Georgia, Human Rights, NATO
Is Russia a Superpower? Cold War II?Posted by Kyle Atwell in European Issues, Transatlantic Relations on Monday, August 25. 2008
Ronald Steel, professor of international relations at the University of Southern California, argues that Russia's strong hand against Georgia signals that, “A Superpower Is Reborn” (NYT):
THE psychodrama playing out in the Caucasus is not the first act of World War III, as some hyperventilating politicians and commentators would like to portray it. Rather, it is the delayed final act of the cold war. And while the Soviet Union lost that epic conflict, Russia won this curtain call in a way that ensures Washington will have to take it far more seriously in the future. Continue reading "Is Russia a Superpower? Cold War II?" United States and Poland Agree on Missile Defense DealPosted by Kyle Atwell in European Issues, Transatlantic Relations, US Foreign Policy on Friday, August 15. 2008
From the New York Times:
The United States and Poland reached a long-stalled deal on Thursday to place an American missile defense base on Polish territory, in the strongest reaction so far to Russia’s military operation in Georgia.I wonder how far Russia-West relations will spiral? We may continue to see a tit-for-tat exchange that has real consequences on the institutions and defense postures that govern these delicate relations. From EU Observer: The US missile deal had an instant impact on already fragile Polish-Russian relations, with Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, cancelling a scheduled trip to Warsaw in September as soon as media reported the initialling ceremony would take place.See also from Atlantic Review: * Georgia Conflict Gives Boost to European Missile Defense Talks * Euro-Missile Talks Are Back, Leaving "New Europe" Behind Georgia Conflict Gives Boost to European Missile Defense TalksPosted by Kyle Atwell in European Issues, Transatlantic Relations, US Foreign Policy on Wednesday, August 13. 2008
A poll by Opinion Research Corporation finds a strong majority of Americans support missile defense, as reported by Market Watch:
A national poll released today revealed that 87 percent of the American Public believes that the United States should have a missile defense system. The public survey showed that 58% of the American Public thinks that there is a real threat from missiles carrying weapons of mass destruction and that missile defense is the preferred option over pre-emptive military action or diplomatic efforts for dealing with the proliferation of missiles and weapons of mass destruction by nation states.This is an astonishingly high number considering the broad opposition to missile defense in Europe, and the reluctance to embrace it by several leading Democrats, including Barack Obama. It will be interesting to see if Russia’s intervention into Georgia will increase or decrease European support for US systems. Initial reports suggest Russia’s actions have provoked a renewed sense of urgency into recently stagnant negotiations between Poland and the United States. According to the Financial Times: Talks on building part of a US missile defence shield on Polish soil restarted on Wednesday, with Polish officials sending much more positive signals than recently, in part because of fears awakened by the Russian attack on Georgia.Talks stalled over Polish demands that the US beef up Polish domestic defenses, including with expensive Patriot interceptors, in order to place US missile defense systems on Polish territory. However, Polish political leaders argue that Russia’s intervention against Georgia has provided substance to its demands, as reported by the Associated Press: Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Tuesday the attacks in Georgia justified Poland's demand for additional security guarantees if it accepts a U.S. installation.Russia has strongly opposed US missile defense systems based in Poland and the Czech Republic, which it sees as a security threat. It is interesting that Russia's incursion into Georgia has emboldened Poland and the United States to push forward with missile defense plans, rather than making them “think twice” before moving ahead with the controversial project.
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Defined tags for this entry: Defense, Georgia, Missile Defense, Obama, Poland, presidential candidate, Russia, Security, War
NATO Television: New Website Offers Useful InformationPosted by Kyle Atwell in Transatlantic Relations on Sunday, August 3. 2008
NATO recently launched a new website through the Public Diplomacy Division called NATO TV. The site has so far been producing front-line operational footage, interviews on NATO issues, press conference videos, an archive with footage going back to 1945, and more.
Undoubtedly much of the footage will be propaganda, though NATO is billing it as news and "the voice of 26 countries". However, this propaganda may not be a bad thing, for at least two reasons: • First, there is a broad lack of understanding about NATO's role in the post-Cold War world, and reasonably so: today's threats are more complicated and nuanced than ever before, making NATO's role in responding to them more difficult to understand than when it had one main mission: deter a Soviet onslaught. NATO TV increases transparency on NATO's activities and organization in an easily digestible format. • Second, while NATO has accomplished a lot historically, and continues to be a key Alliance for both Europe and the United States today, often the media (including yours truly) only highlight controversies or failures – “the only good news is bad news,” as they say. NATO TV will provide information on positive achievements. When you see the way it was, and the effect you have on it, and the way it is now, it has a big impact on you as a person, you feel good about yourself, you feel like you have done something for these people.You can find the three videos released so far at the natochannel.tv website.
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